How the power grid can be made more robust

The proposal is based on the assumption that power grid planners cannot know what the demand for power transport will be in a couple of years. How can the grid be prepared to transport that power nonetheless? The method proposed takes account of several probable variants in technical, economic, and social scenarios for grid planning. It also includes affordable ways to reduce the demand for grid expansion. For instance, peak power production is curtailed, and peak power demand is shifted; in addition, new power plants are built where the grid needs them. In a test on which the proposed grid plan is based, the method proved to be productive.

"This process makes grid planning more transparent. It thus offers us an opportunity to increase public acceptance for urgently needed power lines," explains Rainer Baake, director of Agora Energiewende. "Our test showed that a grid developed in this manner does not have to be expanded so much and can be less expensive than with the current process. But most of all, such a grid would be much more robust because it takes account of a wide range of possible trends, not just a single scenario."

The planning process proposed by Agora Energiewende starts off with the question of which basic technical and economic conditions could influence future power transmission. Because the future is uncertain, there are a lot of different answers, which therefore lead to a large number of scenarios. The plausibility of these scenarios is then checked and the number of different starting points for grid planning reduced to a small number. These starting points mark the boundaries of the large number of different possible developments. In the next step, the grid is planned based on a market model in which all possible trends are taken into account and calculated simultaneously. The resulting grid calculation produces a robust grid. The process should be repeated every few years so that ongoing events can be taken into consideration.

Agora Energiewende and BET, an Aachen-based consulting firm specializing in power grids, collaborated to produce the method. Now, Agora Energiewende – a joint initiative between the Mercator Foundation and the European Climate Foundation – will have another study conducted to find out how the legal framework needs to be changed so that grid operators and the German Network Agency can apply the method.