Deep decarbonization of Indonesia’s energy system

The year of 2020 was a special year for climate and environment. Global carbon emissions fell 7% due to the pandemic. Countries around the world have pledged for carbon and climate neutrality by mid-century. Major economic powers such as the United States, the European Union, China, Japan, South Korea as well as developing countries such as Chile, Brazil, and South Africa have indicated the goal in their NDC updates.

The race for carbon neutrality has started to both achieve the Paris Agreement and reap the benefits of greening the economies. The average temperature has already risen 1.1 degrees above pre-industrial levels. To keep the average  temperature “well below 1.5 degrees,” as required by the Paris Agreement, global greenhouse gas emissions must decrease significantly and immediately.

Will Indonesia – the largest nation in Southeast Asia – be the first country in the region to declare carbon neutrality by mid-century? If so, how can Indonesia build a society that does not rely on coal and oil?

Due to its size and growing energy demand, Indonesia is of key relevance for Southeast Asia, one of the fastest growing regions in the world. At the same time, Indonesia is already today – and will be even more so in the future – highly affected by the nega tive impacts of climate change.

IESR, Agora Energiewende, and Lappeenranta-Lahti University of Technology (LUT) analyzed several pathways for Indonesia to reduce its GHG emissions. This study is the first of its kind for Indonesia, which makes it quite revolutionary. Can Indonesia entirely rely on renewables to supply its energy? What if the whole country – from Sabang to Merauke – were interconnected?

Looking 30 years ahead, the study describes a vision of zero emissions in the Indonesian energy sector by 2050. Though based on existing technology and the best available assumptions, this vision is not meant as the only feasible scenario or roadmap. Rather, it shows the magnitude of the transformation needed in Indonesia to reach the targets. We hope that the proposals outlined provide orientation in the ongoing debate and serve as an impetus for creative and energetic change.